By Koby Rickertsen, ALC

If you were to gauge the future of the land market solely by scrolling through social media or tuning into "expert" economic commentary, you might think you're standing at the edge of a cliff. Phrases like "market correction," "economic uncertainty," and "rising interest rates" are tossed around like confetti, minus the celebration. And yes, there's no shortage of caution flags being waved, especially as we head into 2025 and 2026. Tariffs, shifting government policy, and geopolitical instability fuel a narrative of hesitation.

But here's the thing: what's being said and felt, especially by those who eat, sleep, and breathe land transactions, aren't always the same.

I just got back from the National Land Conference, and let me tell you, the tone in the room was anything but doomsday. I had conversations with some of the top land brokers in the country, people who have seen multiple market cycles and know the difference between smoke and fire. And what I found was not fear or uncertainty but optimism, quiet confidence, and even talk of record-setting years.

So, what gives?

Let's start with what most people misunderstand, or perhaps under-understand, about land values. The common assumption is that land is only worth what it's currently used for: farmland is priced based on yield, recreational land on hunting access, and development land on comps from the last subdivision. But if you stop there, you're missing the whole story, and more importantly, so are your buyers.

Land doesn't sit still. It evolves, and thanks to an ever-growing toolbox of programs and incentives, land can carry a value that extends far beyond corn yield or road frontage.

Conservation Easements, Carbon Credits, and Creative Capital

In the past five years, there's been a quiet revolution in how land can produce value, particularly through conservation programs, carbon credit markets, wetland mitigation banking, and state-level tax credits. What this means for landowners and investors is that value isn't just measured by what can be planted, grazed, or built; it's also measured by what's preserved, protected, or left untouched.

Carbon credit markets, for example, are gaining traction. An investor who understands these programs can buy a piece of ground and monetize its carbon sequestration potential without ever touching a row crop. Add in conservation easements that provide substantial tax benefits in exchange for development restrictions, and suddenly, that "middle of nowhere" ranch starts looking like a retirement plan.

These programs aren't theoretical; they're active, functioning, and attracting a new class of investors. These aren't the same buyers we saw 15 years ago. We're seeing more institutional interest, more high-net-worth individuals looking to diversify out of volatile equities, and more landowners thinking strategically, not just sentimentally.

And here's the kicker: the average person watching the nightly news has no idea this world exists.

Land Is Local, and So Is Confidence

Another reason for the disconnect between the headlines and what land professionals are seeing on the ground is simple: land is local. You can't outsource it, digitize it, or move it overseas. Each property has its own microeconomy, and what's happening in eastern Iowa may have minimal bearing on western Nebraska. But what is consistent across the country right now is interest.

That interest may look different depending on the region. In some states, there is development pressure from expanding metros. In others, it's a rush to secure irrigated ground before water regulations tighten. In the Rockies and upper Midwest, out-of-state buyers might be looking for legacy recreational properties. But across the board, phones are still ringing. Offers are still coming in, and closings are still happening.

And those of us working on these deals every day? We feel that momentum. We're not guessing. We're not speculating. We're helping people make moves, and we're watching the data follow.

It's Not 2008, and That Matters

Let's address the elephant in the feedlot: fear of a correction. Yes, land values have seen sharp appreciation in the past few years. And yes, it's healthy to ask if those values are sustainable. But here's the difference between now and 2008, the last time we saw broad-based real estate panic: back then, it wasn't land or even real estate itself that caused the collapse. It was the way real estate was being financed.

In 2008, bad banking practices, subprime mortgages, predatory lending, over-leveraging, and risky loan structures created a house of cards. People were buying properties they couldn't afford with money that didn't really exist. When the music stopped, it all came crashing down.

Fast-forward to today, that's not what we're seeing in the land market. The majority of land transactions now are supported by real money. We're seeing cash buyers, 50% down buyers, and folks using strategic tools like 1031 exchanges and conservation programs, not maxed-out loans or inflated appraisals propped up by speculative frenzy.

Land has always been a fundamentally low-risk investment. It doesn't go out of style, doesn't depreciate like machinery, and doesn't vanish like paper assets in a volatile market. That's one reason we're still seeing a surprising number of cash buyers in the market, especially among seasoned investors and multigenerational landowners who view land not just as an investment, but as a wealth preservation tool.

And today, those buyers aren't just banking on crop income or development potential. They're capitalizing on various programs that make land even more financially attractive. Conservation easements can generate substantial tax benefits. Carbon credit markets are creating annual returns without the need to develop or subdivide. And, of course, the almighty 1031 exchange continues to drive activity, allowing investors to defer capital gains while repositioning their portfolios.

These aren't theoretical value-adds. These are fundamental tools actively in use, helping land generate returns far beyond the soil's surface. And they're especially attractive in a market where inflation is still lurking, and investors are searching for safe, tangible assets.

What I'm Hearing from the Field

To get an even clearer picture, I've been doing an exercise lately, just picking up the phone and calling bankers I've never met before. No agenda, just curiosity. I've been asking about how they're feeling about 2025, especially when it comes to interest rates, ag lending, and how renewals are going with their clients.

From Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, and Wyoming, I've heard a consistent story.

Row-crop producers? They're having some serious conversations this year. Input costs are high, margins are tight, and there's definitely a little more edge in the air during renewal meetings. But there's also a shared sense of hope, a belief that if we can hang on, a commodity rally in 2025 or 2026 might shift the tides.

Cow-calf operations, on the other hand, are thriving. Calf prices are firm, supply is tight, and ranchers are finally seeing some well-earned profitability.

As land professionals, this is what we live for: not just listening to the market but listening to the people inside the market. We don't just talk to buyers and sellers; we speak to lenders, appraisers, operators, economists, and neighbors. We're out in the countryside and in the conference rooms, stitching together a much fuller view of what's really going on.

Final Thought: Perception vs. Reality

It's easy to get caught up in the swirl of national news and social media chatter, significantly when it's amplified by fear. But if there's one thing I've learned from walking land, working with landowners, and staying connected to the best minds in our industry, it's this:

Land doesn't care about clickbait.

It cares about access, water, soil, location, legacy, and stewardship. It's the most real asset there is. And despite what you may hear, it's still very much in demand.

So, as we roll into 2025, take a deep breath. Tune out the noise. And if you're lucky enough to make your living in this space, know that the ground beneath your boots is a lot more stable than the headlines would have you believe.

Koby Rickertsen, ALC, is a multi-state land broker with High Point Land Company, serving clients across the Midwest. With deep roots in Nebraska agriculture and over a decade of experience in the U.S. Navy Submarine Force, Koby brings strategic insight, disciplined leadership, and a relationship-driven approach to every land transaction. He can be reached at Koby@HighPointLandCompany.com or through www.HighPointLandCompany.com